Mexico World Cup analysis: Home soil gives ‘El Tri’ a chance at a deep run

For the third time in history, Mexico will be hosting the FIFA World Cup. Only this time, unlike in 1970 and 1986, the country is part of a group of three cohosts that includes Canada and the United States. For “El Tri,” this dance on home soil represents a prime opportunity after the disaster that was Qatar 2022. Led by Argentine coach Gerardo “Tata” Martino, the national team experienced its biggest World Cup failure since Argentina 1978.

Mexico went three and out, seeing its streak of seven knockout-round appearances since USA 1994 end unceremoniously.

ROAD TO THE CUP

After the 2022 debacle, the Mexican Soccer Federation (FEMEXFUT) promised sweeping changes with the 2026 World Cup in mind, but what ensued was a series of administrative mishaps and bad results on the field that left many fans feeling uneasy. Many jokingly said the team should forfeit its automatic berth to the tournament to avoid being embarrassed on home soil.

Although names like Marcelo Bielsa, Ignacio Ambriz, Matías Almeyda, Antonio “Turco” Mohamed, and Guillermo Almada came up in the search to find Martino’s successor, who left after Qatar, the Mexican suits surprisingly hired Diego Cocca. The Argentine had ended Atlas’ 51-year title drought by winning back-to-back championships in 2021–2022 but seemed unqualified for the national team job.

Cocca’s tenure ended up being a short one. After getting embarrassed by the U.S. in the semifinals of the Concacaf Nations League in June 2023, he was gone.  

After him, Jaime Lozano, who led the U-23 Mexican team to the bronze medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (celebrated in 2021 because of the COVID pandemic), stepped into an interim role and won the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup. At the players’ request, he stayed on board. However, after failing to advance from the group stage at the 2024 Copa América, Lozano was sacked as well despite being ratified by national team sporting director Duilio Davino after the elimination.

And just like on the road to Korea-Japan 2002 and South Africa 2010, Mexico reached for its “break glass in case of emergency” option and brought back “El Vasco” Javier Aguirre into the fold in August 2024.

Despite a shaky start to his third stint with “El Tri,” Aguirre has managed to get things on track for Mexico by adding stability and building a competitive squad in less than two years.

THE COACH

In this, his third reign with Mexico, “El Vasco” has collected a positive record of 18 wins, four losses, and eight ties in 30 matches, for an impressive winning percentage of 60%. He also managed to return Mexico to the top of CONCACAF by leading the team to its first Nations League title in 2025 and winning the 2025 Gold Cup.

Aguirre’s first order of business was to build the team in his vision. With an underwhelming talent pool, he approached his express rebuild like he has when he has taken over Spanish teams in danger of relegation and saved them. He shaped “El Tri” with a solid defensive foundation and a stingy midfield that can retain the ball. Offensively, under “El Vasco,” Mexico is pragmatic and funnels most of its plays through the flanks.

In terms of tactics, Aguirre usually works out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, but in the lead-up to the World Cup he has also switched to 4-3-3.

THE SQUAD

“El Vasco” put together a 26-man roster that blends a core of experienced players with a crop of youthful upstarts, with an average age of 27.9 years. There are 14 players who are making their World Cup debuts.

Goalkeepers

Guillermo Ochoa

Raúl Rangel

Carlos Acevedo

Defenders

César Montes

Johan Vásquez

Edson Álvarez

Israel Reyes

Jorge Sánchez

Jesús Gallardo

Mateo Chávez

Midfielders

Luis Chávez

Orbelín Pineda

Carlos Rodríguez

Erik Lira

Luis Romo

Álvaro Fidalgo

Obed Vargas

Gilberto Mora

Brian Gutiérrez

Forwards

Raúl Jiménez

Santiago Giménez

Alexis Vega

Roberto Alvarado

César Huerta

Guillermo Martínez

Julián Quiñones

Armando González

LINE BY LINE

Goal

Even before Luis Ángel Malagón went down with an Achilles injury in March and was taken out of contention to make the squad, “Tala” Rangel was already starting to overtake him as Aguirre’s preferred choice between the posts. He is tall at 6’3”, and play-wise shows confidence in the air and ability to play comfortably out of the back. “Memo” Ochoa is also back in a World Cup with Mexico for a record sixth time. It wouldn’t be surprising if the 40-year-old sees playing time, as he is still a good shot-stopper and his experience provides “El Tri” with proven leadership.

Defense

This has to be Mexico’s most solid line. Vásquez and Montes are Mexico’s anchors in the middle. Having played together since the U-23 team, both have developed strong chemistry. Vásquez complements Montes’ physicality with his skill and ball control. On the left, going into his third World Cup, Gallardo brings defensive security and an ability to push the ball forward incisively. On the right, Jorge Sánchez and Israel Reyes, who can also slot in the middle, offer offensive and defensive alternatives.

Midfield

In terms of deep-lying midfielders, Álvarez, also heading into his third World Cup, seems to be Mexico’s top option. He breaks offensive circuits, recovers the ball aggressively, and gives the team balance in the middle of the field. However, he is not coming off a good season with Turkish side Fenerbahçe, as he was plagued with injuries and fell out of favor with the coaching staff. In his slump, Erik Lira stepped up, having great showings in “El Tri’s” March games against Portugal and Belgium. He can do the same tasks as Álvarez but is much more agile and effective at propelling the ball vertically.

Then there is 20-year-old Obed Vargas, who this February made the move from MLS’ Seattle Sounders to La Liga’s Atlético de Madrid. The Anchorage native is a quintessential box-to-box midfielder who can seamlessly do the dirty work and get involved offensively.

In the attacking midfielder group, “El Vasco” has a core of interesting options. Luis Chávez recently came back from a serious knee injury that had him out since July. He has grit, good field vision, and a masterful left foot. Then there is 22-year-old Brian Gutiérrez. The Chicago native is a creative and dynamic playmaker that threads passes into the last third of the field. And at only 17 years old, Gilberto Mora has shown the traits of a talented orchestrator.

Attack

Aguirre is heading into the World Cup with four center forwards. Jiménez has proven to be his top choice due to his associative nature and knack for playing with his back to goal. “Hormiga” González, who broke out with Chivas in the last year, is the best pure finisher on the team. However, Giménez is the most complete player of the bunch; he can create goals and also just knock balls in. And at 6’3”, “Memote” Martínez is a tall target for long crosses into the box and set pieces.

On the flanks, “Piojo” Alvarado has been “El Vasco’s” go-to guy on the right. He has good offensive prowess, but he earns his pay with his shutdown defending when the team overloads on the left pushing upward. On the left, Julián Quiñones is a freight train who can easily penetrate the last line. Alexis Vega is also a potent and destabilizing option.

STAR PLAYER

Johan Vásquez

There is no other Mexican player heading into the World Cup in better form than Vásquez. He is coming off a stellar season with Serie A club Genoa, where last season he was designated team captain after being the MVP in 2024–2025. His reliability and leadership qualities already have him in the same conversation as past “El Tri” defensive bastions like Claudio Suárez and Rafael Márquez. This World Cup will be his tournament.

BREAKOUT PLAYER

Brian Gutiérrez

Gutiérrez has come out of nowhere and has emerged as one of Mexico’s most promising players. In December, he moved to Chivas from MLS club Chicago Fire. It took some time for him to establish himself as a starter for Gabriel Milito’s squad, but his game-changing talent was there — enough to catch the eye of “El Vasco.” With only seven caps with the national team, the Chicago native has the potential to be a key contributor for “El Tri” in his first World Cup.

X-FACTOR

Santiago Giménez

Giménez was surprisingly left out of Martino’s 2022 team. But after that heartbreak, it seemed his time with “El Tri” had come. But outside of scoring the winning extra-time goal in the 2023 Gold Cup final against Panama, he has struggled to shine. He has only scored twice with the team since his Gold Cup-winning goal. At club level, in February 2025 he moved from the Dutch league to Serie A powerhouse AC Milan. After a promising start with the Rossoneri, he lost steam. In October, he sustained an ankle injury that kept him sidelined for five months. In his return, he was unable to earn considerable playing time with Milan. Despite this situation, Aguirre still decided to bring him on board. With a chip on his shoulder after all he has gone through, combined with proven talent, Giménez can be a wildcard for “El Tri.”

BIGGEST QUESTION

Can Mexico make El Azteca great again?

For an exceptionally long time, El Estadio Azteca—Mexico City Stadium for the 2026 World Cup and now corporately known as Estadio Banorte—was “El Tri’s” fortress. The mythical stadium, which saw Pelé and Diego Armando Maradona lift the cup, could weigh in on matches just as much as the team’s performance. The aura, its colossal size, the intense fans, and the Mexico City altitude made El Azteca into hell on earth for visiting teams. However, not since an August 2009 World Cup qualifier against the United States has the stadium buzzed like it did for that 2–1 victory. Lackluster play and results, coupled with Mexico playing most of its matches in the United States, have dampened the stadium’s significance for “El Tri” since then. The fans became disenchanted; the magic faded. However, the 2026 World Cup presents an excellent opportunity for the national team to reestablish the mystique of El Azteca. Mexico could potentially play four games at the venue. Good results and the high stakes of the tournament could make “Coloso de Santa Úrsula” roar again, giving “El Tri” an impactful home-field advantage.

HOW FAR WILL MEXICO GO IN THE 2026 WORLD CUP?

Mexico got a favorable draw for the tournament. They are seeded in Group A along with South Africa, South Korea, and Czech Republic. South Korea looks to be “El Tri’s” toughest opponent, but history is on their side as they own an all-time World Cup record of 2–0 against the “Tigers of Asia.” It is in the national team’s best interest to win the group. By doing so, they would have the chance to stay put in El Azteca for the next two knockout rounds. Unlike the 2022 team, this squad radiates optimism and has enough quality to make a deep run.

The national team will not only win their group with at least seven points, but they will get through the round of 32 against a third-place team. Then they will face either England or Croatia, who will be logging many travel miles in the group stage playing in the U.S. This situation, along with home-field advantage, will propel a motivated Mexico to Miami for the round of eight, where at that point they will be playing with house money.